Speculation and Liquidity in Stock & Corporate Bond Markets
Canonical studies of trading assume that asset payoffs are linear in fundamentals. We propose and test that nonlinearity of equity and corporate bond payoffs (via issuer solvency) has novel informational effects on their price formation. We show that informed risk-neutral speculation trades strategically in those securities by their relative sensitivity to firm value, a function of perceived default probability. As that probability changes so does relative speculative intensity (and adverse selection), yielding differential stock and bond liquidity and nonmonotonic stock-bond price co-movement. We find supportive evidence within a comprehensive sample of intraday U.S. stock and corporate bond trades and prices.
Paolo Pasquariello
Paolo is the John C. and Sally S. Morley Professor of Finance at the Ross School of Business, University of Michigan, and the current chair of its Finance Area. Paolo's research interests are in the areas of information economics, international finance, and market microstructure. His research analyzes the impact of important features of trading (e.g., price manipulation, information asymmetry and heterogeneity, and imperfect competition among agents) and of human behavior (e.g., agency, short-termism, loss aversion, and risk seeking in losses) on the process of price formation in domestic and international equity, government and corporate bond, currency, and real estate markets. In recent studies, Paolo has examined strategic trading in stock and bond markets, government intervention in currency and bond markets, financial crises and contagion, financial market dislocations, and the relation between firm-level adverse selection and firms' capital structure decisions. His work has received numerous professional awards and has been published in several leading Finance, Economics, and Real Estate journals. Paolo is the Managing Editor of the Journal of Financial Markets (where he previously acted as Co-Editor and as an Associate Editor) and was one of the Associate Editors of the Review of Financial Studies. Paolo has professional experience as a portfolio manager in Italy, as a fixed income analyst for Goldman Sachs, and as a foreign exchange analyst for J.P. Morgan. Paolo holds a PhD and an MBA in Financial Economics from the Stern School of Business, New York University, and a BA in Monetary Economics from Bocconi University.
Paolo Pasquariello | Michigan Ross
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