In a piece for the Globe and Mail, Ivey finance professor George Athanassakos says the end of the bull market in bonds has nothing do with Donald Trump’s election but more to do with demographics.
Athanassakos goes on to explain that he sees a long-term increase in interest rates and a fall in bond prices that will not be reversed any time soon.
"One way to put a number on the demographic effect is to calculate the portion of the population that is not in their working years (people younger than 20 or older than 64) and divide it by the share of the population in their working years (between 20 and 64)," he said. "A decrease in this ratio suggests that more people, relatively speaking, are in their asset-gathering years. An increase indicates the opposite, namely, that a smaller portion of the population, relatively speaking, is in their asset-gathering years."
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